Key highlights:

  • USDe has grown past $320 million on Robinhood Chain, strengthening Ethena’s ecosystem
  • The ENA price has broken above a major downtrend and is holding key support near $0.1655
  • Falling active addresses present a risk, but bulls remain focused on higher price targets

Ethena is trying to hold onto a major breakout after months of trading beneath a descending trendline. At the same time, Ethena’s ecosystem continues to expand, with USDe becoming one of the fastest-growing stablecoins on Robinhood Chain.

The combination of improving fundamentals and a stronger technical structure has put the ENA price at an important point. Bulls have regained control of the trend, but on-chain data shows they may still have work to do before the next leg higher begins.

USDe crosses $320 million on robinhood chain

Data shared by Wu Blockchain showed that USDe surpassed $320 million on Robinhood Chain within eight weeks of launch. 

The stablecoin now makes up roughly 42% of the chain’s stablecoin supply, making it the largest external dollar asset on the network and second only to USDG. The numbers are notable. USDe's market capitalization has reached $321.1 million, compared to USDG's $425.6 million. 

Together, the two assets account for nearly the entire stablecoin market on Robinhood Chain, which has grown to $766.3 million. Analyst Mesh linked much of that growth to Robinhood Earn's infrastructure and Steakhouse Financial's decision to use Ethena as a primary collateral issuer. 

Data also showed that between 62% and 65% of liquidity allocated by the Steakhouse USDG Vault found its way into the USDe/USDG Morpho market. For Ethena, this matters because USDe remains the protocol's core product. More liquidity, more collateral usage, and more demand for USDe strengthen the broader ecosystem that supports the ENA price.

The ENA price has finally broken a major trendline

Crypto analyst The Boss pointed to a major change in market structure this week. In a chart shared on X, the analyst noted that the ENA price has broken above its long-term descending trendline, ending a period where sellers consistently capped upside attempts. 

The token has also moved well beyond its previous consolidation range. The focus now is on the reclaimed support zone highlighted on the chart. As long as the ENA price remains above that area, the breakout remains valid.

We had a look at the ENA chart and found a similar setup. The token is trading near $0.166 and continues to defend the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1655. This level has become one of the most important support zones on the daily timeframe.

ENA is sitting well above its 100-day simple moving average at $0.0918. That spread tells you how much things have improved since the lows earlier this year. The next walls for bulls are $0.18 and $0.20. Break those, and the next major resistance comes into view around $0.31.

It's also important to highlight that the Ethena project has announced four key updates designed to reduce ENA selling pressure and increase the amount of value accrued to the ENA token.

Ethena on-chain activity sends a mixed signal

The chart may look stronger, but not every metric is pointing in the same direction. Active address data shows user activity reached roughly 2,800 addresses when the ENA price pushed toward $0.17. 

Ethena active addresses chart

Since then, active addresses have fallen back to around 1,400 even though the token continues trading near those highs. In most strong rallies, rising prices are supported by rising participation. 

Here, the ENA price has continued climbing even as the number of active users has fallen. That could mean a smaller group of larger participants is driving the move. Still, the broader activity picture is not entirely bearish.

Ethena transfer count chart

Transfer data remains healthy, with the highest concentration of activity occurring in the 2,000 to 4,000 transfer range. The distribution appears balanced across different wallet sizes instead of being dominated by whale transactions. That points to continued usage across the network even as active address growth slows.

Can bulls push the ENA price toward $0.31?

The technical structure remains constructive despite the warning signs. We had a look at the ENA chart and found that the token continues to hold above the Break of Structure level near $0.12. That breakout ended the previous downtrend and set up a bullish setup with better odds.

Ethena crypto price analysis daily chart

Daily ENA chart analysis

Short-term resistance is at $0.18, then the psychological $0.20 level. If buyers clear both, $0.31 becomes the next target based on Fibonacci. Support sits at $0.1655, $0.14, and $0.12, layered beneath.

Ethena crypto price analysis 4-hour chart

4-hour ENA chart analysis

Momentum indicators are flashing a yellow light. Daily RSI is at 75.20, overbought territory. The 4-hour RSI is more neutral at 62.86. That combo usually means consolidation before the next move higher. So a pause wouldn't be surprising.

Where could the ENA price go next?

The ENA price has two clear narratives supporting it right now. The first is technical. The token has broken above a long-standing descending trendline, reclaimed key support levels, and remains above its major moving averages.

The second is fundamental. USDe has grown to more than $320 million on Robinhood Chain in less than two months and now controls nearly 42% of the network's stablecoin supply. The challenge for bulls is participation.

Active addresses have dropped from 2,800 to about 1,400, even though ENA price is still hanging near recent highs. If that keeps up, a retest of support at $0.14 or even $0.12 isn't out of the question.

For now, holding above $0.1655 keeps the bullish setup intact. If buyers can break $0.18 and $0.20, the next major target is $0.31. CoinCodex's 1-year ENA price outlook puts the price around $0.3647, which is more than double the current price near $0.16–$0.17.