Glassnode Says Bitcoin Remains in Deep Value Territory as Bottoming Signals Build

A new report by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed that Bitcoin is in “deep value territory,” despite a price rebound over the last week. Glassnode analysts warn that investors should not mistake improving conditions for a confirmed recovery, as several key indicators have yet to turn bullish.

Bottom building in progress, says Glassnode

Per the report, BTC is trading below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200 despite last week’s price spurt. BTC rose from $58,300 to $64,400 over the past week, surging past the crucial $60K psychological numbers.

In cryptocurrency terms, a deep-value period is a phase in Bitcoin’s cycle when the asset trades significantly below its long-term growth curve or average cost basis. Trading below the True Market Mean and the Short Holder Cost are key indicators characterizing the market phenomenon.

Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin has now spent five months below these key cost-basis metrics, making it one of the longest deep-value periods in the asset's history. Previous cycles have shown that such phases serve as accumulation zones that support the next market recovery.

However, Glassnode warned that long-term holders are still capitulating, with the demographic becoming the largest source of selling pressure, dimming any short-term hope of a bullish rally.

Per the report, loss realization by investors who have held Bitcoin for extended periods now accounts for 43% of the total realized value, a 15% increase from early February. Meanwhile, the report noted that long-term holder realized losses reached approximately $280 million per day, its highest level since 2022.

Source: Glassnode

“The market presents a consistent picture of a bear market in its later stages,” reads the report. “On-chain, the five-month deep value regime and rising long-term holder capitulation at $280M per day confirm that supply redistribution is underway.”

Institutional demand remains subdued

The Glassnode report also pointed to continued weakness in institutional demand through US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs set a new record for outflows in June before staging a recovery, but ETF flows remain negative on a 30-day basis. 

Trading activity paints a similar picture, with average daily spot Bitcoin ETF trading volume ranging between 650 million and $950 million, an 80% decline from the 2025 peak of $4.4 billion. Glassnode’s analyst noted that a sustained increase in trading activity alongside stabilizing ETF flows will indicate renewed institutional conviction.

However, derivatives traders have started positioning for a recovery. The options put-to-call ratio has fallen to its lowest level of 2026, indicating increased demand for call options relative to downside protection.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s recovery screeched to a halt after US President Donald Trump declared that the Iran ceasefire was over. At press time, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at 64,354 with trading volumes up by 4% over the last day.