SpaceX Set for Billions in Passive Buying as Nasdaq-100 Weight Doubles

SpaceX’s weighting in the Nasdaq-100 is expected to double later this month, which could set off billions in buying from funds that track the index. The company's weighting would climb to around 2.82% from about 1.28%, according to pro forma data from Nasdaq's Global Index Watch, circulated late last week.  

Why SpaceX's weighting could jump

SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 in July, but its weighting in the index has stayed small so far. This comes as a big portion of its shares were still locked up and could not be publicly traded at the time. 

Nasdaq had changed its rules to let large, newly listed companies join the index faster. They also added a requirement that at least 10% of shares be publicly tradable. However, the limited number of shares available for trading kept SPCX’s weighting lower than what it should be.

However, that is now changing. The lockup restrictions on the shares are beginning to expire, and so more shares are now available for public trading. This boosts the company's free float, allowing it to carry a bigger weighting in the index. 

SpaceX's first lockup expiration came in August, which was coincidental to when it released its first earnings report as a public company. Some experts had shared that there could be massive selloffs in the new shares that could drive the stock down.

But that selloff never happened, even after the unlock of a second batch of shares a week later. Insiders largely held onto their shares, and the stock maintained its price.

More lockup expirations are expected in the months ahead. By the end of October, more than 1 billion additional shares would be tradable, with another 1.3 billion shares potentially following after the company reports third-quarter results in November.

Billions in passive buying could follow after the rebalancing

Funds that track the Nasdaq-100 usually adjust their holdings to match the higher weighting. About $1.7 trillion in assets were tracking the Nasdaq-100 as of the end of the second quarter, according to Nasdaq. This means even a little increase in weighting can lead to increased buying activity.

Notably, Nasdaq had made previous rule changes that worked in SpaceX's favor. In May, the exchange introduced a new "Fast Entry" provision that allowed new listed companies to join the Nasdaq-100 on an accelerated basis if their market value would place them among the index's top 40 companies. 

That change helped SpaceX enter the index shortly after its stock market debut. It drove about $4.3 billion in passive buying into the stock at the time, according to estimates from JPMorgan.

AI business gains attention from analysts

The company’s AI business has grown faster than expected, drawing positive forecasts from experts. Analysts have raised their projected 2027 sales estimate for the company to $100 billion, up from a forecast of $70 billion, according to TipRanks.

Much of that increase was linked to SpaceX’s AI unit, now expected to bring in $60 billion in revenue that year. Projected core earnings for 2027 have also jumped, from $28 billion to $59 billion.

The company's other businesses have kept growing as well. Rocket launches under the Falcon family climbed from under 50 flights in 2021 to more than 150 in 2025. Starlink's satellite internet subscriber base has also doubled over the past year, growing from below 6 million in mid-2025 to over 12 million by mid-2026.