Key highlights:
- Bitcoin whales are showing little appetite for profit-taking despite BTC topping $80,000
- Falling whale ratio, controlled SOPR and moderate NUPL suggest Bitcoin’s current consolidation lacks major selling pressure
- The metrics, combined with BTC’s price spurt, have fuelled optimism for a sustained rally
Bitcoin whales are reluctant to take profits despite BTC climbing above $80,000, with CryptoQuant citing declining exchange inflows from large holders as signs that selling pressure remains contained. The on-chain setup suggests Bitcoin is consolidating before another move higher rather than entering a major distribution phase.
Whale selling pressure remains limited despite BTC price spurt
Bitcoin has doused concerns of ‘Red September’ with a rally that has sent the asset trading over the $80,000 psychological barrier. According to CoinCodex data, BTC surged by 5% over the last day to reach an intraday peak of 82,262 from lows of $77,000.
Despite the price spurt, CryptoQuant’s analysts say Bitcoin whales are not flashing the usual signs of taking profit. CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio has fallen to 0.39, indicating that whales account for a smaller share of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges than in the previous period.
Source: CryptoQuant
Typically, large transfers to exchanges can signal that major holders are preparing to sell. CryptoQuant suggests that the decline means whales are contributing less potential selling pressure to the market.
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s Binance whale transfers have also declined, reinforcing the picture of limited whale-driven distribution. At the moment, Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) sits around 1, meaning coins being spent are changing hands near their cost basis.
According to CryptoQuant, the SOPR metric indicates neither aggressive profit realization nor widespread loss-taking. While the number of investors sitting on unrealized gains has increased, the market has yet to show the kind of extreme optimism that can accompany major cycle tops.
Meanwhile, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) supports the view. The indicator remains positive, showing that the broader investor base is in profit, but it has not reached an extreme optimism zone.
BTC rally fuels bull market optimism
While whales are not showing signs of taking profit, the surge in BTC price is also amplifying bull market optimism among investors. Crypto analyst Jesse Myers argued that the price surge puts BTC at the cusp of a two-three year bull market, noting that the asset has popped above Short-Term Holder cost basis.
He also cited historical similarities to the 2022 bear market that laid the foundation for the next Bitcoin rally. In a bull case scenario, Myers tipped BTC to reach $464,000 while pointing to a $232,000 price point as the bear case.
Zooming out, Bitcoin-gold correlation just hit its highest level since 2020. Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch commented that Bitcoin is acting more like digital gold than a leveraged tech bet, providing upsides for a sustained rally.
In the short term, Glassnode says Bitcoin faces resistance at the $83K-$86K mark, pointing to weakening short-term sentiment. Furthermore, Glassnode highlighted fears related to profit-taking as part of headwinds that can keep Bitcoin trading sideways throughout September.
