Key highlights:

  • ADA indicator flashes a new buy signal, with previous signals leading to rallies of up to 50.9%
  • The ADA price is holding above key support levels, with $0.220 as the next major hurdle
  • Cardano's Leios upgrade and stable market cap are helping support the recovery

The ADA price is showing fresh signs of life after a new buy signal appeared on Cardano's daily chart. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, better known as Ali Martinez, pointed out that the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator has flashed another buy signal, the same indicator that successfully identified several recent ADA bottoms.

The timing is worth noting. Previous buy signals delivered some solid moves, June 25 gave a 44.5% rally, July 15 brought 11.5%, and August 18 popped 50.9%. Now the ADA price is trading around $0.20 again, and traders are watching closely to see if history repeats itself. Same setup, different month. Everyone's wondering if this is another opportunity or just a tease.

 

Analyst sees more upside for the ADA price

Popular crypto market analyst Ali Martinez paints a straightforward picture. Cardano has already bounced off a low near $0.130 and has been grinding higher over the past few weeks.

The first target on the chart is $0.195. Beyond that, Ali points to $0.233 as the next big level, followed by $0.255. From the original signal zone, those targets work out to gains of about 11.5%, 44.5%, and 50.8%. So the potential is there, it's just a matter of hitting those levels.

For bulls, $0.195 is the line in the sand. A clean break above that resistance would strengthen the case for a run to $0.233 and maybe $0.255. The setup starts to weaken if ADA drops below $0.153, that could bring the $0.130 support zone back into play. So it's all about whether buyers can hold those key levels.

Cardano's biggest upgrade could become a major catalyst

Beyond the charts, Cardano's development roadmap is still a huge topic for investors. The network is gearing up for the Ouroboros Leios upgrade, which is the centerpiece of the Dijkstra era. It's one of those things that could really change the narrative if it delivers.

The upgrade aims to increase transaction throughput by anywhere between 6x and 50x, with code completion targeted for late 2026 before a future mainnet deployment. If Leios delivers as expected, Cardano could process significantly more transactions while improving network efficiency. 

That would make the blockchain more attractive to developers and DeFi applications, something Cardano has been working toward for years. Cardano also avoided a governance setback earlier this month after Constitutional Committee seats were renewed with 51.18% support from stake pool operators. 

On the regulatory front, ADA is now eligible for a streamlined SEC spot ETF review process after six months of CME futures trading. But approval is still far from guaranteed. Even with major upgrades coming, Cardano still has a lot of ground to cover. 

The network's DeFi TVL is only about $90 million, way behind Ethereum and Solana. Stablecoin liquidity is also thin, which limits how much capital can actually flow through Cardano's apps. So the potential is there, but the competition is fierce.

ADA chart analysis

We had a look at the ADA charts and found a market that has been steadily improving from a technical perspective. The ADA price is trading around $0.208, comfortably above the daily SMA 100 at $0.1806 and the 4-hour SMA 100 at $0.2043. 

4-hour ADA chart analysis

4-hour ADA chart analysis

Holding above both moving averages gives buyers an advantage across multiple timeframes. The daily RSI stands at 56.92, which remains bullish without entering overbought territory. On the shorter timeframe, the 4-hour RSI is at 65.60, showing strong momentum as Cardano pushes toward nearby resistance levels.

Daily ADA chart analysis

Daily ADA chart analysis

The first test is $0.220. Clear that, and $0.240 and $0.260 come into view. Above those, traders will start watching the bigger resistance zone near $0.300 and the Fibonacci level at $0.3527. Support is clustered between $0.200 and $0.180. As long as ADA holds above that range, the broader uptrend stays intact.

ADA on-chain data shows signs of recovery

On-chain metrics are looking decent too. Cardano's market cap is holding around $7.3 billion, bouncing in a relatively tight range between $7.2 billion and $8 billion. That kind of stability tells you there's steady interest, even with all the market noise.

Cardano market cap chart

The ADA price is still trading about 93.5% below its all-time high near $3.20. Although that sounds extreme, drawdowns above 90% have historically marked major accumulation zones for several large-cap cryptocurrencies.

Cardano drawdown from ATH chart

There are also signs that conditions are improving. The drawdown has eased from roughly 93.7% to 93.1% during the latest recovery, matching the move from around $0.19 to above $0.20.

Where could the ADA price go next?

The next big level for ADA is $0.220. Break above that, and $0.240, $0.260, and possibly $0.300 could be in play over the next few weeks. Ali’s latest buy signal adds some weight to the bullish case, especially given how well that indicator has performed during previous Cardano bottoms. 

Add in improving technicals, stable market cap data, and the upcoming Leios upgrade, and bulls have a decent list of reasons to stay optimistic. The main risk is losing support at $0.200 and $0.180. If those fail, attention would shift back to $0.160 and eventually the $0.130 area. So the setup is good, but there's still a downside to watching.

For now, the ADA price is attempting to build on its recovery, with traders watching closely to see whether Cardano can finally break through resistance and extend its rebound toward the higher targets outlined by Ali Charts.

CoinCodex's 1-month ADA price prediction places the token around $0.2095. That target is almost in line with the current ADA price near $0.208-$0.209, they expect Cardano to hold its recent gains rather than make a major breakout over the next month.