Key highlights:
- Bitcoin faces major resistance at $83K to $86K as Glassnode warns profitable supply could fuel selling pressure
- ETF inflows remain strong, but muted trading activity suggests Bitcoin’s rally lacks broad market momentum
- Rising US Treasury yields and cooling options sentiment could keep BTC range-bound through September
Bitcoin’s recent relief rally has stalled after pushing above $80,000, with Glassnode identifying the $83,000-$86,000 area as the next major resistance zone. The on-chain analytics firm opines that rising profitable supply and weakening short-term sentiment can keep Bitcoin trapped in a broad range in September.
Bitcoin rally runs into heavy resistance
Bitcoin’s meteoric rally at the tail end of August has encountered heavy resistance in early September. On August 27, the Bitcoin price topped $80,000 after a strong price spurt that saw the asset record its biggest weekly spike since 2023.
Glassnode, in its latest market analysis, highlighted a dense cluster of potential short liquidations between $83,000 and $86,0000, creating a major hurdle for bulls. Below Bitcoin, meanwhile, sits a significant pool of long liquidation liquidity around $60,000-$63,000.
According to Glassnode’s analyst, the cluster leaves BTC trading between two important liquidity zones, with the $83K-$86K region representing the immediate upside barrierGlassnode also pointed to a change in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics.
Back in May, when Bitcoin traded around $78,000, around 65% of the circulating supply was in profit. When Bitcoin returned to the same price level in late August, the figure had risen to 68%. Per Glassnode, the increase suggests that more holders are sitting on unrealized gains at current prices, potentially creating additional sell pressure if Bitcoin attempts another move higher.
Source: Glassnode
While US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surged, Glassnode noted that daily secondary-market activity remained relatively subdued. For Bitcoin to break above the $83K-$86K resistance band, stronger spot demand and broader market participation are required, says Glassnode.
‘Red September’ fears return as yields climb
As the Bitcoin rally faces the resistance band, the macro backdrop is also less supportive. The US 10-year Treasury yield initially fell toward 4.6% after the August 19 buyback announcement, but the relief proved short-lived.
Within eight trading sessions, the yield had climbed back to 4.8%, reaching fresh cycle highs. Higher Treasury yields can place pressure on risk assets by increasing the return available from lower-risk government debt while raising broader financial-market discount rates.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s relationship with equities has also weakened. Glassnode noted that the 30-session correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 fell toward zero during the latest rally.
However, Glassnode’s analyst cautioned that previous episodes of sudden Bitcoin-equity decorrelation during sovereign bond-market stress have generally been temporary rather than evidence of a lasting regime change.Options markets are also sending a similar message of caution. Short-term bullish positioning surged during the August squeeze before the seven-day 25-delta skew returned toward neutral as resistance held.
With the September 25 quarterly options expiry carrying around 14 billion in open interest across Deribit and IBIT, the event could become an important volatility and positioning anchor.
