Key highlights:
- The Coinbase Premium flipped green for the first time since May
- US spot ETFs pulled in $3.51 billion, the most since October 2025
- A 90-day correlation with gold has also risen above 50%
A key gauge of US Bitcoin buying demand has turned positive for the first time in three months. This suggests that American investors are returning to the market in a bigger way. The change also comes amid the recent BTC price rally and a notable change in how closely the coin is tracking gold versus tech stocks.
What the Coinbase Premium turning positive means
The Coinbase Premium measures the price gap between the Nasdaq-listed exchange Coinbase and Binance. When the reading turns positive, it suggests buyers on Coinbase are paying more than those on Binance, a sign of comparatively stronger US demand. That gauge flipped positive on Friday, according to Coinglass. This is the first time it flipped green since May.
Source:Coinglass
This change comes after Bitcoin pumped from about $63,000 to over $80,000, coupled with the new inflows into US spot exchange-traded funds. Those ETFs, led by BlackRock's IBIT, pulled in $3.51 billion of investor capital, the strongest showing since October 2025.
It's currently on a 9-day streak of consistent capital after recording $242 million in inflows on Thursday, according to data from SoSoValue.
The indicator carries more weight than a typical market metric. The positive premium has historically shown up in past bull runs, and the current reading could signal how far the rally can extend.
Bitcoin gold correlation tops 50%
The growth in US demand comes as the asset's market relationships are changing too. Research from Grayscale found that the 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 50%, up from barely above zero at the start of the year.
Source: Grayscale Research
Over the same stretch, the correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from more than 60% down to about 33%. Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, said the change shows how investors are treating the asset more like a scarce monetary store of value instead of a high-risk tech bet.
For much of the past year, price action had been following high-growth tech stocks, as falling interest-rate expectations and ample liquidity lifted crypto and the Nasdaq 100. That link has clearly loosened in recent weeks.
BTC’s price recovery coincided with volatility in bond markets and investor unease about long-term US borrowing costs.
Much of the interest is tied to the US fiscal numbers. Gross federal debt crossed $40 trillion on August 18 and had climbed to about $40.10 trillion by August 25, according to the Treasury Department.
Interestingly, CZ shared that Bitcoin could overtake gold in the next bull market thanks to chatter that the US may be considering adding the coin to its reserves.
Even with the recent gains, BTC's rally hasn't been a straight line. Price gave back part of its advance in the days following the peak. This still suggests that its link to gold hasn't erased short-term volatility.
