Key highlights:
- CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 in a single week
- The firm said a weekly close above $83,000 is needed to confirm a new bull market
- They also warned of a short-term pullback
Bitcoin has climbed quickly over the past week, which has led to very optimistic calls. The latest came from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, saying the coin has entered the early stage of a new bull market. However, the firm is holding off on calling it official until price soars above $83,000.
Bull Score jumps fastest in a year
CryptoQuant tracks market health using what it calls a Bull Score. That score moved from 30 to 80 in just one week, its highest since October 2025. By the firm's account, this is the fastest change in conditions it has seen since the start of the year.
Source: CryptoQuant
The jump came as the coin pumped nearly 25% in about ten days, briefly touching $81,000 before settling near $79,000. Eight of the ten indicators inside the Bull Score are now flashing bullish signals.
CryptoQuant highlighted two catalysts for the sudden rise. One, the U.S. Treasury's plan to double its bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9. Second, the comments from President Donald Trump that suggest the government may buy BTC.
For the first time since October 2025, when BTC last hit an all-time high, spot and futures demand are growing together. The firm said these are strong signals suggesting buying activity. The firm said the pattern shows "genuine spot accumulation alongside returning leverage."
Why $83,000 is key for the Bitcoin bull market
CryptoQuant did not declare a confirmed Bitcoin bull market just yet. In the note, the firm's researchers said a weekly close above $83,000 is important. This level is the dividing line between improving and weakening market conditions, according to the analysts.
"Price closed at $79,000, roughly 5% below the 365-day MA, now at $83,100. A decisive break above $83,000 would confirm the new bull market; until then, that level is likely to act as initial resistance, with the possibility of an early bull market correction."
Until that weekly close happens, the analysts said the current rally is only the "initial phase" of a possible new cycle, not confirmation of one.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant isn't alone in sounding optimistic. BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes said that a new Bitcoin bull market has already started. Strive CEO Matt Cole also said this week that the bear market is officially over.
There are still warning signs to watch
Whilst there was a bullish tone, the firm still flagged signs the market may be “overheated” in the near term. Traders' unrealized profit margin has climbed to 20.5%, its highest level since June 2025. This is a point where investors usually start cashing out gains, which can add selling pressure.
Short-term holders are already doing exactly that. CryptoQuant said these holders booked $1.2 billion in realized profits between August 20 and August 22, including a single-day record of $614 million on August 20 when BTC traded between $78,000 and $79,000.
Exchange inflows have also picked up for major crypto assets, a trend that could mean investors are ready to sell. Bitcoin inflows to exchanges rose to about 53,000 BTC, the highest since June 5.
Ether inflows jumped as well to around 1.7 million ETH, also a multi-month high. XRP whale inflows climbed to around 460 million tokens, their highest level since February. The analytics firm said this pattern signals intent to distribute, take profit, or hedge.
