Key highlights:
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says the CLARITY Act will garner 60+ votes on September 15
- The US Senate is scheduled to hold a crucial cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, teeing up the bill for an imminent final vote
- Odds for the bill to pass have risen after Armstrong and US Senator Tim Scott signaled confidence
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicts the CLARITY Act will garner over 60 votes on September 15, bringing it closer to becoming law. US Senator Tim Scott also shared similar sentiments about an imminent passage, with odds climbing northwards after reaching all-time lows.
Brian Armstrong says CLARITY Act will clinch over 60 votes in September
In an interview on CNBC Squawk Box, Armstrong claimed that the CLARITY Act will receive overwhelming support from US Senators at the scheduled cloture vote on September 15. The Coinbase CEO noted that the CLARITY Act will get over 60 votes, putting it firmly on the path to become law in the near future.
A cloture vote is a formal Senate procedure used to limit further debate on a bill, forcing a vote if opponents are trying to delay it. The CLARITY Act requires 60 votes to pass the procedural hurdle, but failing to reach the threshold will effectively kill its chances for passage in 2026.
Aware of the high stakes, Armstrong remains bullish on the CLARITY Act, citing a raft of reasons. Right off the bat, he pointed to the timing of the vote, noting that the Senate Majority Leader Thune chose to schedule the vote right after the recess amid competing issues jostling for floor time.
“There’s a lot of competition for floor time. He would not have scheduled it on September 15 if he didn't think it would pass,” said Armstrong.
Furthermore, the Coinbase CEO argued that both sides of the aisle have got “90% of what they want,” clearing the path for the bill to sail through the procedural vote. Armstrong pointed to hours of bipartisan work to produce the bill’s current version and extensive provisions for banks, law enforcement, and digital asset companies.
US Senator Tim Scott forecasted that there is a “really good shot” that the CLARITY Act passes in September. He shared his comments in a panel session at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, highlighting the bill’s robust nature and its impact for the digital asset industry.
The Clarity Act will become law. The only questions are how and when.
I believe we have a real opportunity to get this done, and I’ll keep pushing to protect consumers and keep innovation in America. pic.twitter.com/yhaTsuW9qm— Senator Tim Scott (@SenatorTimScott) August 20, 2026
Odds climb after a torrid patch
Data from Polymarket indicate rising odds for the CLARITY Act to become law before 2027. At press time, the odds stand at 27% after slipping to lows of under 20% in early August amid a raft of legislative delays.
Odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026. Source: Polymarket
Last week, Galaxy cut the odds of passage in 2026 to 10%, hinting at the failure of the cloture vote in mid-September. There are palpable fears that lingering issues over enforcement jurisdiction and ethics provisions may hurt the bill’s chances during the vote.
Meanwhile, the White House has an ace up its sleeve if the CLARITY Act fails to pass. US regulators are pivoting to an independent legislation-by-regulation approach to establish market rules under their own authority.
The US SEC is making progress with its Reg Crypto playbook while the CFTC has disclosed plans to enforce a market structure framework using its existing statutory powers if Congress fails to pass the bill.
