Key highlights:
- Galaxy has lowered the chances for the CLARITY Act to pass in 2026 to 10%, its lowest level yet
- Galaxy points to the lack of a scheduled vote and a bevy of lingering issues trailing the bill
- The Trump administration will host top crypto executives at the White House this week while the SEC will make its proposed rules public
Galaxy Research has cut its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 10% as the legislation faces a narrow Senate window and a raft of unresolved political disputes. The falling odds come amid the Trump administration forging ahead with a separate regulatory agenda to provide parts of the crypto industry with clear rules even if Congress fails to pass the bill.
CLARITY Act odds fall to 10% amid tight Senate calendar
Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, disclosed that the firm has reduced expectations for the CLARITY ACT to pass before the end of the year. Galaxy pegged the new odds at a dismal 10%, citing a raft of reasons for the lowered estimates.
Right off the bat, Thorn pointed to the absence of a scheduled vote for the bill with Senate recess underway. He added that expecting a vote on the CLARITY Act when the Senate returns in September will be “optimistic if not quixotic,” pointing to several unresolved issues trailing the bill.
According to Thorn, resolving the issues after recess is also unlikely because the September session is two weeks long given the mid-month resumption and an adjournment for midterm election activity.
Furthermore, Thorn pointed out that there is no clear pathway for the CLARITY Act to get 60 votes in the Senate required for passage. Senators are still haggling over the ethics provision while banks are lobbying on stablecoin yield, with Galaxy noting that a 2026 passage will require a miracle.
“CLARITY Act passage remains a possibility, but we are firmly in ‘circus trick’ territory,” wrote Thorn. “If it is to pass in 2026, we need magic.”
Galaxy’s latest estimate represents a significant reversal from early in the year when the firm gave the bill a higher chance at becoming law. In June, Galaxy pegged the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 60%, but several headwinds saw its analysts reduce expectations.
However, traders on Polymarket hold a slightly more optimistic view for the CLARITY Act being approved in 2026, with odds hovering at the 20% mark.
Source: Polymarket
SEC moves ahead as Congress stalls
The regulatory impasse has coincided with the efforts by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to establish its own crypto framework. Under Chair Paul Atkins, the agency has been developing proposals covering token fundraising and innovation exemption, but a scheduled meeting to discuss new crypto rules was canceled over a scheduling issue.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has not given up on the CLARITY Act. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt disclosed that the administration remains committed to passing the legislation in September, indicating a parallel approach.
The parallel approach will come into focus this week when President Donald Trump is tipped to host crypto industry executives at the White House on August 19. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig are also expected to participate in the meeting.
“IMO, the administration is not waiting around for the Clarity Act,” said Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management. “Garnering support for that would be great, but I think they’ve already made the decision to power ahead regardless.”
Sources say the meeting will involve executives from Coinbase, Polymarket, Ripple, Gemini, and other leading digital asset service providers. Traditional finance players Nasdaq, NYSE, DTCC, and CME are tipped to attend the Trump White House meeting.
