Ondo Price Prediction: Tokenized-Stock Expansion and Perps Launch Put ONDO in Focus

The conversation around Ondo has changed quite a bit. A few months ago, most traders were focused on the drop from the 2025 peak near $2.15. Now the focus is much more on futures activity, tokenized stocks, and institutional products.

Sarosh noted that ONDO open interest has climbed back above $204 million, futures flows have turned positive across several intraday windows, and spot buying has started to show up again on both the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes. That doesn’t mean the correction is definitely over, but it does suggest that larger traders haven’t walked away from the market.

ONDO futures positioning is starting to look better

The recent drop knocked out a lot of weak leveraged longs around $0.330, and since then the ONDO price has been trying to steady itself near $0.337. What I find interesting is that the futures data is starting to improve even though the price still looks weak.

Sarosh noted that open interest is back above $204 million, futures flows have turned positive across several intraday windows, and spot buyers are showing up again on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. 

Smart Money Stepping In? $ONDO Futures Flows Flip Positive! 11:15 am$ONDO is trying to stabilize around $0.337 after flushing out a lot of weak longs near $0.330.

What caught my attention is what is happening underneath the price.

Open interest is back above $204M, futures… pic.twitter.com/pvLeY9blNQ

— Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022) August 13, 2026

I wouldn’t take that as proof that the correction is finished, but it is a very different picture from the panic selling that often appears before another big leg lower. The chart still needs work. ONDO remains below the 50-day SMA at $0.35175 and the 21-day EMA at $0.35828, so buyers have not regained control of the short-term trend yet.

The next level is simple. If the ONDO price can get back above $0.351-$0.352 and spot buying strengthens, the setup becomes much more interesting. If it falls below $0.330 again, I’d be watching the $0.319-$0.314 area very closely, especially because it lines up with the lower Bollinger Band near $0.31953 and the 200-day SMA at $0.31434.

The ONDO chart still needs more work

I analyzed the 4-hour and daily charts, and the technical picture still looks cautious. ONDO is trading around $0.3313 after failing to hold the rally near $0.42 earlier this month. The 4-hour chart has broken below a descending channel, which tells me sellers still have the short-term edge.

4-hour ONDO chart analysis

ONDO is also trading well below the 100-period SMA at $0.3671, and the 4-hour RSI is around 38.57, which is bearish but getting close to oversold territory. The main support I’m watching is the rising trendline from the June low, with a broader support zone around $0.28-$0.30 underneath it.

The daily chart is not much stronger. ONDO remains below the long-term descending trendline and below the 100-day SMA at $0.3624, so the broader trend has not turned bullish yet. The next major support is the Fibonacci level near $0.2888.

Daily ONDO chart analysis

Volume has cooled noticeably since the July rally, which suggests buyers are not stepping in aggressively right now. The daily RSI near 37.65 is one small positive because it is already in oversold territory and could support a short-term bounce. ONDO needs to reclaim roughly $0.351-$0.362 to improve the chart. If it loses $0.314-$0.315, the $0.2888 area becomes the next major support to watch.

ONDO regulation and Token unlock

The regulatory backdrop has become much more favorable.The SEC closed its investigation into Ondo without enforcement action in December 2025, removing a major legal overhang. Then, in July 2026, Ondo’s broker-dealer subsidiary Oasis Pro Markets received FINRA authorization to offer tokenized stocks, ETFs, and other securities to U.S. investors.

That doesn’t guarantee immediate inflows, but it does create a compliant path for both retail and institutional capital in the United States. Ondo is also participating in the DTCC tokenization working group alongside firms such as BlackRock and JPMorgan, and the company has disclosed pilot activity involving Mastercard and Ripple.

The bullish story isn’t without a major caveat. ONDO has a maximum supply of 10 billion tokens, with roughly 4.87 billion already circulating. A large unlock is scheduled for January 17, 2027, when approximately 1.71 billion ONDO could enter circulation. 

Ondo also launched Ondo Perps, where tokenized equities and commodities can be used as collateral for perpetual futures trading. The platform is not available to U.S. users, and Ondo has stated that the platform and its contracts are not registered with the SEC or CFTC.

On-chain activity picked up near the low

The on-chain data changed noticeably right as the ONDO price hit its local low. Active addresses climbed back toward 1.67K when ONDO traded near $0.33, after falling to roughly 1.33K during the middle of the decline. 

Transfers jumped to roughly 5.2K transactions, one of the highest readings on the chart.That doesn’t prove institutions are buying, but it does show that network activity increased materially near the recent low. The latest reading cooled back toward 4.0K transfers, which suggests the market is still trying to find equilibrium.

Where could the ONDO price go next?

The ONDO price is stuck between strong business execution and weak short-term technicals. Ondo keeps expanding tokenized-stock distribution, launching new infrastructure, and securing regulatory approvals. The chart, however, is still below its key moving averages, and the $0.314 support zone remains under pressure.

For me, the next decision point is pretty straightforward. A recovery above $0.351 would make the setup much more constructive. A break below $0.314 would indicate the market wants a deeper reset before the next recovery attempt.

According to CoinCodex’s 1-month ONDO price prediction, the price is projected to trade around $0.2500, which is below the current trading area near $0.33-$0.34. Institutional infrastructure is still being built even during a difficult market environment, and that’s what makes ONDO worth watching closely over the next several months.