Key highlights:

  • Bitcoin is at the end of the crypto winter after braving a raft of negative news reports, says Matt Hougan
  • The Bitwise CIO noted that the Coldcard hack and Strategy selling its BTC holdings did not send prices spiraling downward
  • Hougan argued that conditions for a strong end to the year for Bitcoin are aligning with wealth management platforms tipped to trigger the rally

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan theorized that Bitcoin (BTC) has reached its bottom after a streak of bad news failed to impact the asset’s price. Since the start of August, Bitcoin has grappled with the jarring Coldcard hack, waning sentiment around the CLARITY Act passing, and Strategy selling off its BTC holdings.

Bitcoin has hit bear market bottom, says Matt Hougan

In an interview with Bloomberg, Hougan disclosed that Bitcoin’s resilience to bad news is a clear signal that the asset has hit the bottom of the bear market. Hougan cited recent price data to back up his claim, noting that BTC held steady despite a slew of black swan events.

“One sign that you are at the bottom of the bear market is when an asset stops responding to bad news,” said Hougan.

Right off the bat, Hougan pointed to the Coldcard hack that led to the theft of over $100 million in BTC. The incident, spanning from the tail end of July into August, shook confidence in hardware wallets but did little to dent the BTC price.

Rather, investors piled into Bitcoin ETFs as an alternative to self-custody, providing a tailwind for BTC price. Compared to July, Bitcoin ETFs have had a strong showing in August, recording four consecutive days of positive net inflows. 

Meanwhile, Hougan pointed to Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of Michael Saylor’s Strategy selling off a portion of its BTC stash. At the start of the week, Strategy offloaded 1,690 BTC, but the sale did little to hurt the asset price, confirming Hougan’s theory.

Furthermore, the Bitwise CIO noted that STRC’s decline from $100 did not push Bitcoin’s price lower. He also opined that BTC price held steady despite the falling odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026, suggesting a bottoming of the bear market.

 

Hougan predicts a strong end to 2026 for BTC

Hougan forecasted that Bitcoin’s price holding steady despite a raft of negative news is a tell-tale signal for higher prices by the end of the year. He told Bloomberg that a wave of heavy BTC accumulation by wealth management platforms will trigger the next rally for the asset class in the coming months.

“We are ignoring bad news and over-indexing to good news. I think it's a sign that we may be at the bottom of the crypto winter, and we may have a strong end of the year,” said Hougan.

Already, Bitcoin whales have increased their holdings ahead of the release of US CPI and PPI data. Several analysts have also released bullish end-of-year estimates for Bitcoin, while others call for caution.

Early in the year, Hougan predicted that regulatory clarity and a strong equities market will position Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for a strong showing in 2026. While regulatory clarity is still in doubt, the US stock market is nearing all-time highs, providing ample tailwind for crypto prices to rally.