Key highlights:

  • The XRP price is holding near $1.02, with $1.00 remaining the key support level
  • Santiment reports 32 new wallets holding 1 million+ XRP despite a roughly 29% market cap decline
  • Glassnode data shows rising active addresses and transfer activity, pointing to stronger network participation near support

XRP is at one of those levels when there seems to be a clash between the price chart and the blockchain statistics. The reason for this clash is because if you take a look at the price chart alone, the trend is pretty simple - XRP has been in a downward trend for months now.

The market cap has dropped 29% within the past three months while the price fell from around $1.60 to near $1.00, but things are different when looking at the blockchain statistics.

 

According to Santiment, the number of wallets with 1 million XRP or more grew by 32 within that three-month timeframe. This means that large wallet owners have been increasing their holdings despite the market selling off. For me, that is the most interesting part of the current setup.

XRP whales are buying into weakness

Santiment’s chart tracks wallets holding at least 1 million XRP, and the trend has been moving upward even as the XRP price has been moving down.

That kind of divergence is often treated as a “smart money” signal. Large holders usually accumulate during periods of fear, not during euphoric rallies. If whales were distributing, you would expect the wallet count to fall alongside the market cap decline. Instead, it has been rising.

Santiment also pointed to the growing role of RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar-backed stablecoin. RLUSD has become a more significant institutional product, and Ripple continues to build up its payments, custody, and tokenization network on top of the XRP Ledger. The important part is that the ecosystem story is becoming wider than just the XRP price.

This XRP level is still the main battlefield

The XRP chart was reviewed and what can be read from both 4 hours and daily timeframe is quite clear that the bearish pressure on the market remains unchanged with $1.00 being the key level for traders to watch out for.

4-hour XRP chart analysis

4-hour XRP chart analysis

On the 4-hours chart, the XRP rate trades at the level of $1.0186, which is below the 100-period SMA at $1.0574. XRP price has dropped below the descending triangle support level, while the 4-hours RSI stands at 44, which is below the neutral mark of 50, and volumes remain low.

The daily chart also shows a similar picture. XRP is trading at $1.0184, which is below the daily SMA 100 at $1.1818, and the general downtrend since the 2025 highs at $4.40 is intact. The next technical level is at $0.8936, which is the 1.0 Fibonacci level.

Daily XRP chart analysis

Daily XRP chart analysis

The one thing that gives bulls a little hope is the daily RSI near 38. That is already in oversold territory, and markets often start to stabilize when selling pressure gets that stretched. If the XRP price can stay above $1.00, a bounce toward $1.05-$1.10 is still possible. If it loses $1.00 on a daily close, then $0.89 becomes the next major support level to watch.

XRP network activity is rising, not falling

This is where the story gets much more interesting. Glassnode’s active-address data shows activity climbing from roughly 35,000 addresses to about 43,500 addresses, which is the highest reading on the chart, right as the XRP price dropped toward $1.01.

XRP active addresses chart

Transfer activity tells a similar story. The number of daily transactions grew from around 360,000 to 490,000, coinciding with the bottom print of XRP at $1.01. This does not match the typical profile of a dying market.

XRP transaction count chart

The rise in addresses and transactions indicates that genuine participants had entered the action near the bottom, which fits the pattern in the whale accumulation data.

The fundamental backdrop is better than it was

The legal situation has also improved materially. The SEC case was settled in August 2025, removing a major cloud that had hung over XRP for years. Since then, several spot XRP ETFs have been introduced, enabling institutions to gain access in a regulated manner.

Ripple has also been advocating for RLUSD, an EVM-compatible sidechain as well as tokenized asset programs on the XRP Ledger. Although these offerings require some traction in the market, the focus now is on utility and network development.

One interesting thing is the pace of the ETF rollout. Industry trackers count seven spot XRP ETFs launched since November 2025. That is a very different setup from the period when many regulated investors avoided XRP because of the lawsuit. If ETF inflows continue to build, they could provide a steadier source of demand for the XRP price than the market has had in years.

The utility story is also becoming easier to follow. Ripple has been expanding its payments network, custody services, and tokenization infrastructure, and the XRP Ledger is positioning itself for real-world asset activity. 

What could happen to XRP next?

In the near term, the XRP price is still required to confirm the technical picture before bulls get aggressive. The key reversal will happen when the price moves above $1.05. Thereafter, traders will have their eyes on $1.10-$1.15 and subsequently the daily SMA 100 at $1.18. 

Should $1.00 break, the market will start moving towards $0.89 relatively soon thereafter. According to CoinCodex’s 1-month XRP price prediction, the XRP price is projected to trade around $1.15, which is modestly above the current trading area near $1.02. 

The most important signal remains the divergence between the price and whale behavior. The XRP price still looks weak on the chart, but large holders are accumulating and network activity is rising near support. As long as $1.00 holds, I think the odds of a meaningful rebound remain high enough that bulls will keep watching this level very closely.