Key highlights:

  • The Senate has only a few days left to pass the CLARITY Act before the recess
  • The lawmakers have other options like extending the session or returning after the recess
  • The Polymarket odds of the bill passing this week are at 14%

As the Senate’s August recess has drawn closer, the CLARITY Act is now facing increased uncertainty. So far, the lawmakers haven’t announced a vote on the market structure bill, leaving them with only a couple of sessions to act.

As the days are numbered, all eyes are on the Senators’ next move on the crypto bill. According to experts, there are three major possibilities. The Senate could still pass the bill in the coming days before the lawmakers leave for their summer break. They could also extend the current session or return to the bill after the recess. Despite the options, the outcome is still far from certain.

Can CLARITY Act pass before Senate’s Summer recess?

Although major Senate leaders push for the CLARITY Act’s passage this week, the chances are very low. For Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the bill remains his main priority before lawmakers leave for the summer break. But the passage is still unlikely mainly because of the limited window before the Senate’s August recess. 

According to Polymarket odds, the CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass this week. Notably, the odds of the bill passing before the recess are at 14%, down by nearly 40%. This indicates that the industry remains less optimistic about the market structure bill’s passage this week as time is running out.

Polymarket odds of CLARITY Act passing before August recess

Source: Polymarket

Senator Cynthia Lummis has also been urging lawmakers to push the CLARITY Act forward within the remaining days. According to an X post Lummis shared, both Republicans and Democrats are working to resolve the remaining disagreements in the bill, and thus negotiation is still going on. However, her comments merely reflected her optimism but did not confirm the potential passage of the bill.

At the same time, as CoinCodex reported yesterday, experts like Matt Hougan believe that the crypto industry will endure even if the bill is not passed this year. The Bitwise CEO remains confident about the crypto industry, which he believes could expand even without the CLARITY Act. 

Unveiling three possible outcomes

As the Senators are preparing to begin their August recess, they have only very limited time to move forward with the CLARITY Act. Even though they haven’t yet scheduled a vote on the crypto bill, they can still act fast within the remaining days to pass it. If Senate Majority Leader John Thune files for cloture before lawmakers leave, the market structure bill could still move forward this week.

Another possibility is that the Senate extends its current session into next week, delaying the start of the break. This gives the lawmakers more time to work on the bill, increasing the chances of its passage this year. Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director at TD Cowen, stated:

"The only way to get to a final vote before the recess at this point would be for the Senate to delay the recess for a week or for the Senate to waive the rules, which requires unanimous consent. We view both as improbable as senators want to return home to campaign and Sen. Elizabeth Warren is guaranteed to object to any effort to expedite votes on the Clarity Act."

If these two possibilities do not happen, the other option is the crypto bill’s return to the Senate in September after the recess. However, after the recess, the CLARITY Act is less likely to be passed as the legislative calendar will be tight ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.