Key highlights:

  • Arthur Hayes says the AI boom is a credit bubble, arguing excessive borrowing to build data centers will trigger a financial crisis similar to 2008
  • Hayes forecasts governments to respond with massive money printing to rescue the AI sector, creating a wave of liquidity that can drive Bitcoin to $1 million
  • He believes Bitcoin has been overshadowed by AI investment, but says capital will rotate back to crypto as AI spending slows

Prominent crypto investor Arthur Hayes has theorized that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is laying the foundation for Bitcoin to reach $1 million. Hayes argued that the AI investment frenzy is creating the conditions for an even larger wave of monetary stimulus once the bubble bursts, teeing up a rally for BTC.

AI bubble bust will send Bitcoin to $1 million

Hayes outlined the thesis in a lengthy Substack essay titled Situationship, where he compared today’s AI spending to the US housing bubble before the 2008 financial crisis. 

Hayes expects banks, private credit funds, and governments to continue pouring money into AI infrastructure, creating excess capacity before demand can justify the investment. Once spending growth slows, highly leveraged borrowers could face solvency issues, triggering a broader credit crisis similar to 2008 rather than the dot-com collapse of 2000.

Source: Arthur Hayes via Substack

Hayes predicts that governments will respond to an AI-driven credit crisis with aggressive intervention to protect strategically important companies and lenders. According to Hayes, central banks and governments would likely deploy even larger liquidity programs than those used after the 2008 financial crisis, eventually flowing into crypto markets.

“Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise,” Hayes wrote, predicting that authorities will “print money in greater sums than the 2008 GFC,” driving the cryptocurrency “to one million and beyond.”

In his thesis, Hayes argued that Bitcoin has underperformed in recent months because AI investments absorbed global liquidity. Bitcoin price has fallen by over 50% from its all-time high, with leading treasury firms like Michael Saylor’s Strategy preparing to sell their BTC holdings.

While remaining bullish on Bitcoin, Hayes is tipping Ethereum (ETH) to benefit from the next phase of the cycle. He forecasts Ethereum to reach $5,000 by the end of 2026, driven by growing institutional interest in tokenized real-world assets.

Can BTC clinch $1 million?

Arthur Hayes is not the only expert tipping Bitcoin to reach a valuation of $1 million. Previously, Michael Saylor backed the premier cryptocurrency to clinch $1 million within the decade, citing its fixed supply scarcity and rising institutional adoption.

An ARK Invest forecast from earlier in 2026 mirrors the predictions of Hayes and Saylor, expecting that the cryptocurrency market will grow to a valuation of $28 trillion by 2030. Under these conditions, ARK Invest’s analysts say Bitcoin will account for 70% of the global crypto market capitalization, giving it a $1 million valuation.

However, the path to a seven-figure price point for Bitcoin will not be a walk in the park. Pundits argue that the rally will require significant monetary expansion with central banks resuming aggressive quantitative easing. 

Furthermore, the perception of Bitcoin as digital gold has to grow to support a higher valuation in the coming years. A cross-section of believers say BTC will reach seven figures by the end of 2030, with the asset requiring a 1,500% surge to meet the milestone.