Grayscale Says Bitcoin Bear Market Is Far From Over, Sets October Timeline

Key highlights:

Grayscale said BTC could bottom towards the latter part of the year.
Past crashes have seen drawdowns of around 80%, which this hasn't hit yet.
Peter Brandt also predicted a cycle low for October 4, 2026.

Grayscale said in a new report that the Bitcoin bear market may not be over even with its current recovery. They highlighted BTC's four-year cycle as a trend to watch. Some experts had initially shared that they think the coin has matured past that trend. However, the investment firm shared that the cycle may still be in play.

This comes as the coin looks to regain lost ground. The coin trades around the $65,000 - $66,000 range.

Bitcoin bear market could follow historical pattern

Grayscale pointed to the well-known four-year cycle theory to make its point. This is centered on Bitcoin halving events, which reduce the rate at which new coins enter circulation. Usually, previous market peaks and bottoms have followed almost the same pattern after each halving.

The firm said past cycles show that BTC typically reaches its lowest point about one year after a new ATH and 2.5 years after a halving event. Past downturns also saw average declines of at least 80% from a peak price. By this trend, it means that the bear market could continue till September or October

“Cumulative drawdowns have averaged ~80%.1 The four-year cycle theory implies that Bitcoin’s price could fall further, with a bottom in September or October,” Grayscale said.

BTC faces economic challenges

The firm shared two views in the new research note. Grayscale shared that Bitcoin has grown into a more mature asset. BTC now reacts like traditional assets that are influenced by economic growth, inflation, interest rates, among others.

For instance, Grayscale said the coin could resume its upward move if the Federal Reserve cuts rates.

“Bitcoin bear markets in the past have corresponded with slowing economic growth and/or rising real interest rates”

Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s Head of Research, said the firm is pivoting more toward the macroeconomic play out than the traditional cycle theory. He said Bitcoin may have already found its bottom.

Source: Grayscale

Peter Brandt also sees a possible bottom in October

Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared that the market could reach its cycle low on October 4, 2026. He also drew his conclusion from Bitcoin’s previous falls.

Based on that pattern, he said the coin could still fall below $50,000 and move into the upper $40,000 range before a durable bottom forms. Brandt had even previously shared that he is considering dumping BTC.

He also revealed that investor sentiment does not yet look like the type of panic usually seen when the coin falls.

According to him, true bottoms happen when investors lose total confidence and rush to sell. He reiterated that right now, the market sentiment is balanced and not fearful.

“Right now it’s neutral. Markets don’t bottom on neutral sentiment. Markets bottom on panic and volume,” Brandt said.

Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the sentiment around Bitcoin looks to have improved in recent weeks. Bitcoin ETFs especially have reversed their course, now maintaining a consistent streak of inflows. The fund continued its positive streak on Wednesday, recording $68.99 million in inflows, according to SoSoValue data.