Key highlights:
- Gold continues defending the key $4,000 support zone after a 23.8% correction from its February high.
- The trendline breakout has put $4,300, $4,400, and $4,500 in focus as the next resistance levels.
- Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 10% this month, extending the BTC/Gold ratio's uptrend.
Gold is attempting to establish itself following one of the most dramatic reversals in a long time. The gold price is trading near $4,120, down by about 23.8% from levels of approximately $5,400 reached in February.
Despite the decline, there have been active purchases of gold at $4,000 levels, which makes many traders think that the correction is close to its end.
In addition to this, there is a new macroeconomic environment to watch. Crude oil prices are rising, the political climate remains volatile, and it's time for investors to reconsider the impact these factors might have on inflation and interest rates.
The gold price is holding one of its most important support levels
Macro analyst Lukas Ekwueme believes the gold price may have reached an important turning point. His chart shows gold breaking above a short-term descending trendline after repeatedly defending the $4,000 support zone.
Is it too early to call the bottom in gold?
The $4,000 level continues to hold, and gold has now broken out of its short-term downtrend.
What's even more interesting is that the breakout coincides with oil moving higher and the war continuing to escalate.
The prevailing… pic.twitter.com/l0C5oidR42— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) July 22, 2026
We analyzed the gold daily chart, and we can observe that the recovery process is just starting. The gold price has declined from $5,400 to $4,117, which represents a 23.8% decline in value. However, every attempt to reach the area of $4,000 has been supported, thus allowing the market to avoid falling into the next leg down.
The key level to focus on now is $4,000. If buyers continue to support this level, the next level of resistance is at $4,300, then $4,400, and after that, $4,500. Breaking the level of $4,500 will be a clear indication that the correction process is finally losing strength. In case if the gold price declines below $4,000, then the next support levels are $3,900 and $3,800.
Bitcoin is still outperforming gold
Gold's recovery attempt is happening at the same time Bitcoin continues to outperform the precious metal. Bitcoin has beaten gold by 10% in the current month according to crypto analyst Ash Crypto, a figure that has been seen in past occasions when people were accumulating Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is outperforming Gold by 10% this month.
Historically, this has been a strong accumulation zone. pic.twitter.com/s0N4XUduC9— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) July 22, 2026
We analyzed the BTC/Gold ratio per month which represents how many ounces of gold can one Bitcoin buy. This ratio has risen from about 87.62 million in mid-2021 to about 321.29 million in recent times, indicating that the purchasing power of Bitcoin against gold has been rising in the last five years.
The overall trend for the long run is bullish where the ratio will continue to make higher highs and lower lows. There is a projection of 806.95 million for the ratio around 2027 to 2028 timeframe.
What comes next for the gold price?
The gold price has reached an important technical level. Buyers keep supporting the $4,000 level following a 23.8% decline from February highs, while the price break above the short-term trend line has enhanced the short-term picture.
Next resistance levels to watch out for include $4,300, $4,400, and $4,500. A breakout above all these levels will solidify the recovery and improve the probability of a trend reversal. If the gold price falls below $4,000, attention would quickly move to $3,900 and then $3,800.
CoinCodex's 1-month gold price forecast places the gold price at $4,266.22, implying modest upside from current levels if buyers can maintain support above $4,000 and extend the recovery toward the next resistance zones.
