Key highlights:
- The ADA price is holding above $0.169 support, with $0.1765 and $0.2089 as key resistance levels
- Cardano's market cap has climbed to $6.2B-$6.33B even as ADA remains over 94% below its all-time high
- Cardano's Van Rossem hard fork cuts smart contract costs and introduces protocol version 11 through on-chain governance
Cardano looks set to finally stabilize itself after months of heavy selling. The ADA price has rallied back above $0.17 after slumping by close to 87% from its late 2025 highs, and some analysts see the current recovery potentially having further upside should buyers continue to defend their current support levels.
It seems there may be a fundamental catalyst worth noting here too. Cardano has activated the Van Rossem hard fork which upgrades the platform to protocol version 11. The new protocol brings down the costs of executing Plutus smart contracts, adds some built-in capabilities and constitutes the first major Cardano update that was completely approved via on-chain governance.
The ADA price may be starting a relief rally
Crypto analyst More Crypto Online believes Cardano has finally reached the downside target of its current Elliott Wave structure. In his view, the next move could be a corrective Wave 4 bounce, with the ADA price having room to recover toward $0.23 if buyers continue stepping in.
That doesn't mean the bear market is over. The analyst points out that the larger bearish structure remains intact, so this should still be viewed as a recovery inside a broader downtrend until price proves otherwise.
$ADA
Cardano is finally trying to plant its feet after tagging the next downside target. A corrective wave 4 bounce is on the table, with room toward the $0.23 area if buyers actually show up.
The catch: the bigger bear structure still has not signed off. Until the smaller… pic.twitter.com/vinelSBn6D— MCO Global (@moretradingonl) July 20, 2026
We had a look at the 4-day chart, and Cardano is trading in one of its most important support areas in years. The ADA price is holding near $0.169 after spending almost four years inside a complex Elliott Wave correction. That level lines up with the projected completion of Wave C and falls inside a highlighted accumulation zone.
With buyers controlling the market action, the first potential upside target will be around $0.23. Above $0.23, there is further resistance at $0.314, $0.405, and the key Fibonacci level of $0.521. The first downside targets would be $0.163, then $0.094 if the corrective phase deepens.
Cardano is starting to regain momentum
The shorter timeframes are painting a more encouraging picture. The ADA daily chart was analyzed, and the ADA price is currently trading at $0.1755, having risen by 3.36% in the recent session. However, the ADA price is still about 16% below the 100-day simple moving average at $0.2089, and thus, the general trend is still not bullish.
Daily ADA chart analysis
However, momentum seems to be improving since the daily RSI has risen to 56.44 following an improvement from the oversold condition seen previously this year. Also, the RSI has continued to make higher lows despite the ADA price making lower lows amid the correction. This is known as a bullish divergence.
The shorter timeframe looks stronger. We had a look at the ADA 4-hour chart, where the ADA price trades around $0.1753, about 3.7% above the rising 100-period SMA at $0.1690. The 4-hour RSI has climbed to 69.24, putting momentum close to overbought territory.
4-Hour ADA chart analysis
The next resistance is found at about $0.1765. Should the bulls break through this level, we will be focusing on the $0.20 level before the bigger Fibonacci resistance of $0.2188. The first support lies at the 100-period SMA of $0.1690, and below that are $0.16 and $0.15.
Cardano on-chain data points to fresh buying
The on-chain data from Glassnode is also beginning to support the technical recovery. Cardano's market capitalization has climbed to roughly $6.2 billion-$6.33 billion, with fresh capital entering the market alongside the latest price recovery.
Market cap has risen together with the ADA price, which points to genuine buying activity instead of a bounce driven by thin liquidity. Cardano also remains more than 94% below its all-time high. That places ADA among the deepest corrections across major cryptocurrencies.
Deep drawdowns often attract investors looking for value, particularly when capital starts flowing back into the market. That appears to be happening now, with rising market capitalization reinforcing the improving technical picture. Even so, traders still need to see buyers defend current support before talking about a lasting trend reversal.
Van Rossem brings lower smart contract costs
Cardano has also delivered one of its biggest network upgrades in recent months. The Van Rossem hard fork has moved the blockchain to protocol version 11, introducing improved Plutus cost models, additional built-in functions, new case expressions, and expanded BLS12-381 cryptographic support.
For developers, the biggest benefit is lower execution costs for Plutus smart contracts. Since smart contract computation makes up part of every decentralized application fee, reducing those computational requirements can eventually lower costs for users once developers update their applications.
The upgrade also marks an important milestone for Cardano's governance. Van Rossem represented the first major hard fork of the blockchain network that was approved by on-chain governance, including delegation, stake pools, and the Constitutional Committee members voting in favor.
Aside from reducing costs, this update serves as a precursor to the upcoming Leios scalability update that will be increasing transaction speed without altering the proof-of-stake security system of Cardano.
What comes next for the ADA price?
As the ADA price attempts to make a months' worth of losses count, it is facing a few key resistance points. First, the 4-hour support at $0.1690 must be held and broken at $0.1765 and finally at $0.20.
After that, the daily 100-day SMA at $0.2089 becomes the next major test. Above that level, the price will have a stronger argument to make a rally towards the analyst's $0.23 forecasted level. According to CoinCodex's 1-month ADA price prediction, the price is projected to reach $0.1812, implying modest upside from the current level.
So far, it seems like the ADA price may be making the best attempt at recovery in months. If the buyers manage to hold support and break the resistance points, then it will lead to a more serious recovery.
