Key highlights:

  • Bitcoin retraces back to $64k after a brief pump.
  • Wintermute warned that Bitcoin's recent rebound does not confirm a market bottom.
  • The firm also highlighted BTC could still trade in the $50,000 range.

Crypto market maker Wintermute warns that it might still be too early to call a market bottom despite Bitcoin's bounce from $59,000. This comes despite many crypto industry analysts believing that the worst of the current crypto bear run may finally be over.

 

Wintermute says Bitcoin price could still fall further

In its latest weekly market update, Wintermute warned investors not to mistake improved market sentiment for a confirmed market bottom.

The firm noted that  Bitcoin recently rebounded from lows near $60,000 to around $65,000, ending a four-week losing streak. According to Wintermute, the move was driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. They also highlighted the U.S. inflation report that met market expectations.

However, the company argues that these are macroeconomic developments rather than signs of a new crypto bull market.

"That's not the same as the bottom being in," Wintermute wrote in the report.

They also warned that the Bitcoin price could still trade in the $50,000 range before conditions improve.

The firm pointed to several warning signs, including continued weakness in crypto liquidity. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed net outflows this week, losing $64.09 million at the start of trading on Monday, according to data from SoSoValue. Grayscale's GBTC accounted for the majority of those withdrawals, recording $124 million in outflows.

Wintermute also highlighted that slowing stablecoin growth and lower Digital Asset Treasury activity mean that capital has not yet returned to the market.

"The one thing to watch is flows, not price, not headlines," the firm said.

Analysts split on BTC’s next move

Wintermute is not alone in the bearish expectations about the market. Finance expert Peter Schiff predicted on X that the Bitcoin price would drop below $50,000 and even fall below $20,000. This is not exactly surprising, as Schiff is known for his long criticism of digital assets.

Other experts have also been making observations based on past market trends. For instance, TradingShot shared in an analysis that BTC may fall as low as $38,500 by October 2026 if past bear markets continue their trend.

Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, popular crypto investor Jason Williams added that BTC has always traded below its realized price prior to hitting a cycle bottom point. With the Bitcoin realized price at approximately $53,600, he thinks the coin could drop further to $44,488.

This Wintermute update came after Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, recently stated that "crypto spring" was here. According to him, institutional adoption and favorable regulation may spark the next wave of development in the digital asset space.

Kendrick shared that he feels confident that the crypto market bottomed out, with Bitcoin's lowest point being estimated at $59,000.

However, Wintermute believes that the Fed's latest projections and policy guidance can be instrumental in determining whether the coin remains stable at current levels or declines further in the coming months.